About Florida Mullet Run
An independent Florida fishing resource combining public weather and marine data with angler-submitted sightings to track the annual mullet migration.
What this site is
Every fall, huge schools of mullet move along Florida’s coasts — pouring south down the Atlantic beaches and flooding out of the Gulf passes to spawn — with snook, tarpon, redfish, bluefish and sharks on their heels. Timing the run is most of the battle, and the signs are scattered across weather forecasts, tide tables, buoy readings and word of mouth.
Florida Mullet Run pulls those signals into one place. For each of our 33 beaches, inlets and passes we show live conditions, a daily Opportunity Score, the next best window over the coming two days, and the latest sightings from anglers on the water.
We’re independent: not affiliated with the FWC, NOAA or any tackle brand or charter company. The site is free and supported by ads and affiliate links (see our Privacy Policy).
How the Opportunity Score works
The Opportunity Score is a 0–100 rating of how favorable conditions are for finding mullet — and the fish chasing them — at a given spot right now. It isn’t a promise that bait is there; it’s a transparent summary of the conditions that tend to move it.
Each factor is rated from 0 to 1 and multiplied by its points. Add them up and you get the score. Every beach page shows this breakdown factor-by-factor under “why this score”, so you can see exactly what’s helping or hurting.
The two coasts fish differently, so they use different models.
Atlantic surf score
On the Atlantic side the run is a southbound push along the beach, driven by season and onshore wind.
| Factor | Points | What it rewards |
|---|---|---|
| Season window | 30 | Where the calendar sits in the north-to-south migration. Northeast Florida peaks first; the baseline shifts later toward Miami. |
| Tide stage | 22 | Moving water — a falling tide scores best, then rising. Slack water is weaker. |
| Wind direction | 18 | The broad northeast-through-east band that pushes bait against the beach. Offshore west winds score poorly. |
| Wind speed | 18 | A moderate 10–17 knots. Flat calm or blown-out surf both score low. |
| Recent NE–E pattern | 12 | How much of the last 18 hours the wind has blown from the northeast to east. |
Gulf exit score
Gulf mullet stage in bays, marsh and rivers, then leave through the passes when fronts cool the water. The Gulf score looks for those exit triggers. Points in brackets apply at stations with a river gauge.
| Factor | Points | What it rewards |
|---|---|---|
| Cold front | 20 (18) | The biggest 24-hour pressure fall in the last two days — fronts trigger the exit. |
| Water cooling | 20 (18) | Water temperature dropping out of the 80s toward the low 70s. |
| Season window | 18 (16) | October–November in the Panhandle and Big Bend, sliding later toward Naples. |
| Outgoing tide strength | 18 (16) | A strong ebb on a big tidal range draining the bays through the passes. |
| North-wind flush | 14 (12) | Northwest-to-northeast wind, which is offshore on the Gulf and pushes water out of the bays. |
| Moon phase | 10 (8) | Days from the nearest new or full moon. |
| River flush | — (12) | River flow above its two-week median (or a salinity drop), at stations with a USGS gauge. |
Next best window
We re-score the hourly forecast against the tide timeline for the next ~48 hours and highlight the strongest stretch. On the Gulf this uses forecast pressure, so an incoming front shows up before it arrives.
Where the data comes from
- Wind, temperature and pressure — measured station readings from NOAA’s National Data Buoy Center and NOS stations first, then Open-Meteo, then the National Weather Service forecast.
- Tides — NOAA Tides & Currents (CO-OPS) predictions.
- Water temperature and waves — NDBC buoys and coastal stations.
- River flow — USGS stream gauges on Gulf rivers.
- Sightings — reports from anglers submitted on the Sightings page, plus credited public Instagram posts.
Stale or missing readings are handled honestly: an offline buoy is treated as offline, and the affected factor falls back to a neutral value rather than a guess.
Why sightings aren’t in the score (yet)
Sightings are shown right next to the score, but they don’t change it. The score uses public data only until we’ve collected enough matched conditions-and-sightings to know which factors genuinely predict bait. The weights above are a research-based starting point, and each season of reports lets us recalibrate them. Every sighting you log helps.
Fish responsibly
Scores are heuristics, not guarantees. Bag limits, size limits and closures change — always check current rules with the FWC before you keep a fish. Our regulations guide is a starting point, not legal advice.
Get in touch
Spotted an error, have a local tip for a beach page, or want to help? Contact us or follow along on Instagram.